from: Mike Hulme <m.hulmeatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: Fwd: Arctic climate change: seeking contributions to a report
to: nick Brooks <nick.brooksatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
You could perhaps include this as a brief mention in the Annex E - other initiatives on
dangerous CC research. WWF are doing this one.
I have refused the commission - but if you were interested in earning 2,000 let me know.
Date: Thu, 13 May 2004 17:45:32 +0200
Subject: Arctic climate change: seeking contributions to a report
From: Lynn Rosentrater <ldratXYZxyz.com>
X-Mailer: Apple Mail (2.553)
X-UEA-MailScanner-Information: Please contact the ISP for more information
X-UEA-MailScanner: Found to be clean
Dear Professor Hulme,
I am coordinating a project for a large, international NGO and writing to assess your
interest and availability in a project we are doing on arctic climate change.
WWF, the conservation organization, is preparing a report on dangerous climate change
and is looking for a researcher to address the question of how much the arctic region
would warm if global mean temperature were to increase 2�C since pre-industrial times.
In its simplest form I see this project as a data mining exercise to browse the IPCC
scenario archives, identify a suite of runs where the globe has warmed on average 2�C,
and then describing the patterns of arctic climate at that point in time.
We would like to commission you to write a fully referenced paper on this topic. The
paper should be no longer than 4500 words, include an abstract, an introduction, up to
six figures or tables, content sections with brief subheadings, and a bibliography.
Manuscripts in draft form would be due July 15, 2004 and are expected to be in final
form by September 1, 2004. Contributors will receive an honoraria of 2,000 Euros.
I have pasted a brief summary of the project at the end of this message. Would you be
available to contribute to this report? Please let me know of a convenient time to reach
you by telephone so we might discuss our commission in greater detail. If previous
commitments prevent you from contributing, I would appreciate your suggestions for other
researchers who I might approach.
I look forward to hearing from you.
Lynn Rosentrater, LDR Consulting
R�dstuveien 6, N-0572 Oslo Norway
tel: +47 930 93 818
WWF is a global conservation organization acting locally through a network of family
offices. This project is being developed out of WWFs International Arctic Programme in
Oslo, Norway for WWFs global climate campaign. For more information please visit our web
About the project
Evidence and Implications of Dangerous Climate Change in the Arctic:
The central question behind Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) is what level of climate change should be avoided in order to
prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The convention
specifies that such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow
ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not
threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.
Dangerous anthropogenic interference can therefore be interpreted as that leading to
climate change within a time frame insufficient to allow ecosystems or social-economic
systems to adapt thus leading to significant damage to those systems.
Several recent studies have shown that global warming is altering the distribution and
abundance of plant and animal species worldwide. A primary concern for wild species and
their ecosystems is the rapid rate of both observed and projected changes. Arctic
ecosystems are strongly constrained by temperature, and are expected to be markedly
influenced by global warming. In many cases, threshold changes will occur in physical
systems shifting from permanently frozen to periodically thawed thereby propagating
ecosystem wide effects.
Understanding what constitutes dangerous climate change is of increasing importance for
scientific analysis and policy debate. WWF, the conservation organization, believes that
in order to avert dangerous climate change, global mean warming should be limited to a
peak increase of less than 2�C above pre-industrial times. Peaking at less than 2�C will
not prevent major damages, but the option of avoiding a 2�C increase will disappear
within the next decade unless urgent action is taken.
What we're planning:
WWF would like to create a sense of urgency for its policy work promoting renewable
energy solutions by assembling a broad array of evidence providing a convincing case of
dangerous climate change in the Arctic. To that end we seek researchers to tackle the
1. What does a 2�C global target mean for the Arctic in terms of a regional temperature
2. How will sea ice respond to a 2�C global increase in temperature?
3. What are the expected changes in vegetation and ecosystem shifts?
4. How will the diversity, ranges, and distribution of species be effected by such an
5. What are some of the indigenous perspectives on rising temperatures and dangerous
Papers and essays addressing these questions will be assembled into a report that will
be launched at the ACIA International Scientific Symposium Climate Change in the Arctic,
9-12 November 2004 in Reykjavik, Iceland.
Information for prospective authors:
Individual contributions to the report will consist of papers of up to 4500 words
addressing one of the questions listed above and fully referenced from the peer-reviewed
press. The papers include an abstract, an introduction, up to six figures or tables,
content sections with brief subheadings, and a bibliography. Drafts of the manuscript
are due July 1, 2004 and are expected to be in final form by September 1, 2004.