Friday, March 30, 2012

2987.txt

cc: tar_cla@earth.usgcrp.gov, tar_la@earth.usgcrp.gov, wgii.bureau@earth.usgcrp.gov, tar_reved@earth.usgcrp.gov, ipcc@earth.usgcrp.gov, ipccatXYZxyzcrp.gov
date: Sat, 23 Sep 2000 21:51:21 -0800
from: Evan Mills <emillsatXYZxyz.gov>
subject: Re: TS - PLEASE REVIEW!
to: Neil Leary <nlearyatXYZxyzcrp.gov>

September 23, 2000

Good job by the writing team. I think the document has come a long way, and flows well
now. My suggested inserts are in CAPS.


GENERAL

I like the format of the titles under section 2, i.e. as statements rather than generic
headings. Would be interesting if the headings in sections 3 and 5 could also be case this
way, i.e. with the format: Topic: main finding(s). May be too difficult; just a suggestion

Note that Ch 8 has been renamed "Insurance and Other Financial Services". It would be good
to change the name of SPM Section 3.7 to match this.

It was good to see that many of the findings of Ch8 (are consistent with the other chapter
results.

Some themes that might merit more attention:
More on socioeconomics (i.e. pulling themes out of human settlements, agriculture,
financial services, etc and into other sections to illustrate the general points made.

- Was surprised to see so little discussion of the "big themes" of sustainability and
equity�.

- Given the considerable discussion at the Synthesis Report meeting and on other
occasions I thought I'd see more on co-benefits. Perhaps a short Section 2.7 is called for.

PAGE 2

Line 4. Wording is ambiguous as to the directions of changes. This is discussed later in
the SPM, but perhaps there's a way to summarize here. If the sentence is currently intended
to suggest that the (net) changes are adverse in nature, then this should be stated more
clearly.

Line 6. An important finding from Chapter 8 is that increasing exposure is a big part of
the equation. Other chapters probably also address this. Perhaps a sentence along the
following lines would be useful: "�.(ENSO). COUPLED WITH CLIMATIC CHANGES, VULNERABILITY
RISES WITH INCREASING EXPOSURE AS A RESULT OF GROWTH IN WEALTH AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES THAT
BRING POPULATIONS INCREASINGLY INTO HARM'S WAY [TS 4.6]".

Line 12. "�the frequency AND INTENSITY of fire and pest�"

Line 38 - "�human health, human settlements, INSURANCE AND OTHER FINANCIAL SERVICES, energy
supply�." Edit should be made to reflect lineup of section 3.7 and the presence of Ch 8 in
WG2.


PAGE 3

Line 1. Shouldn't "socioeconomic" systems also be included in this section heading since
one of the three paragraphs in this section is focused there?

Line 7. "typo: "shiftis"

Line 20. "physical, biotic, AND SOCIOECONOMIC systems"

Line 22. "�.social and economic systems (E.G. INSURANCE, �.<others?>) also have been
affected�"

Line 25. "�explanations for observed changes." HOWEVER, THE OBSERVED CHANGES ARE LARGELY
CONSISTENT WITH THOSE THAT WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE."

Line 34. "�changes in average CONDITIONS SUCH AS temperature and rainfall." (i.e., temp and
rainfall aren't the only processes of concern.)

Line 39. �"to climate change [TS 4.6�.]"
Also
"�.vulnerability to climate change. INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IS A CENTRAL PROBLEM FOR THE
INSURANCE SECTOR [TS 4.6].

Line 46. I would strongly suggest replacing "energy demand for cooling" with "electricity
service reliability". The problem is much broader than just cooling alone, e.g.
interruption of high-tech manufacturing, internet centers, etc. due to power outages. Also,
"�human mortality AND MORBIDITY related to heat stress."

Line 54. "increase wildfire frequency AND SEVERITY�."


PAGE 4

Line 4. "�insurance claims and GOVERNMENT-PROVIDED DIASTER PREPAREDNESS and recovery
efforts." Our chapter deals extensively with the vulnerability of the government sector,
and for completeness the SPM could echo that here.

Line 24. "�vulnerability, WHILE SUPPORTING EQUITY AND SUSTAINABILITY GOALS".

Line 29. "�of adaptation [TS 4.6]."

Line 32. "�vulnerable locations, AND THE AVAILABILITY OF INSURANCE
[TS 4.6, 6.0]."

Line 35. "�growth, DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE, and resource depletion."

Line 36. "�.environmental risks. MOREOVER, WE HAVE OBSERVED SYNERGISMS BETWEEN MITIGATION
(THE DOMAIN OF WORKING GROUP 3) AND ADAPTATION MEASURES [4.6]."


PAGE 6

Line 32. The notion of "transitional effects" seems very important, but is only touched on
in passing. For example, I know for the issues treated in Ch8, it is a key issue, where
transitional bumps in the road can cause widespread disturbances in the sector.

Line 40. "Possible increases in the frequencies AND/OR INTENSITIES of extreme�"

Line 44. Extra period at end of heading

Line 53. Add "TS 4.6" before 6.1.


PAGE 7

Line 30. Refers to "section 2.6 of the SPM below". I presume this is an artifact of an
earlier draft.

Line 50. Most readers will wonder what the net effect of cold/heat mortalities is. Provide
if available.


PAGE 8

Section 3.6. Hopefully something will be said about electricity reliability. This has
become a major new issue in North America this year and is a problem that will be
exacerbated by extreme weather events. This is a material issue for both the energy and
industry sectors.


NOTE: I have the following suggestions for 3.7, but these should be discussed within our
author team before being made to the SPM.

Line 34. Begin paragraph with:

THE FINANCIAL SERVICES SECTOR (PREDOMINANTLY INSURANCE AND BANKING; PRIVATE AND PUBLIC) IS A
UNIQUE INDICATOR OF THE POTENTIAL SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, AND OFFERS A
BAROMETER OF EFFECTS ON OTHER SECTORS. THE TAR HIGHLIGHTS FINANCIAL SERVICES BECAUSE IT
REPRESENTS A RISK-SPREADING MECHANISM THROUGH WHICH THE COSTS OF WEATHER-RELATED EVENTS ARE
DISTRIBUTED THROUGHOUT SOCIETY.

Line 34. "Global direct ECONOMIC losses FROM LARGE EVENTS (APPROX HALF OF ALL
WEATHER-RELATED LOSSES)�..increased from 3.9 BILLION annually �"

Line 35. Change 1960s to 1950s.

Also:

"�(1999 USD). "OVER THIS PERIOD, INSURANCE LOSSES INCREASED FROM NEGLIGIBLE LEVELS TO $9.1
BILLION PER YEAR, WHILE THE INSURED FRACTION OF TOTAL LOSSES AND THE RATIO OF LOSSES TO
PREMIUM INCOME ROSE STEADILY."

Line 43. "�coverage, and INCREASED demand�"

Line 45. "�.established). [TS 4.6] ADAPTATION IS ALSO A FUNCTON OF NUMEROUS NON-CLIMATE
STRESSES ACTING ON THE INSURANCE SYSTEM (E.G. COMPETITION, NON-WEATHER-RELATED LOSSES,
HEALTH OF THE SECURITIES MARKETS)." I've suggested adding this because the general point is
made on page 13, line 9 but not illustrated in the main body of the SPM.

Line 47. Delete "to" before the word "adapt".

Line 49. "programs AND OTHER MECHANISMS (E.G. BUILDING CODES)."

Line 51. "�bear a HIGHER share�." (replace "lower" with "higher").


PAGE 9

Line 3. �.in some areas, WHILE PLACING INCREASED PRESSURE ON PRICES, and could�."

Line 5. "by uncertainty AND LIMITED RESOURCES."

Line 16. "can be found in TS 5 AND TS 4.6 and chapters 10 through 17�."

Line 39, section 5.1. Not sure if the intent is to include socioeconomic (in addition to
natural systems) here. If so, the following point could be made on Line 47. "�.adversely
affected (medium confidence)� INSURANCE AND GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED RELIEF ARE THE PRIMARY
SOCIOECONOMIC RISK SPREADING MECHANISMS. REGIONAL VULNERABILITY OF SOCIOECONOMIC SYSTEMS IS
PARTICULARLY HIGH IN AREAS WITH LOW INSURANCE PENETRATION OR POOR GOVERNMENTS. [TS 4.6]."

Footnote 2, last line. �'change although LOCAL/REGIONAL CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES AND
changes in other aspects of climate�."


PAGE 10

Line 3. "�among the peoples AND ECOSYSTEMS of the world."

Line 17. I'd like to know where the statement that impacts would be "a few percent of world
GDP". We need to be sure it is consistent with what Chapter 8 says.

Line 18. Note clear to me what "globally aggregated non-market impacts, measured in
monetary terms" refers to. Can we find a better wording for this?

Line 34. What does "critical design" refer to?
Also
"�.or natural AND ECONOMIC THRESHOLDS [TS 4.6] being exceeded�."


PAGE 11

Line 3. "�of the stimuli to which NATURAL AND SOCIOECONOMIC systems may need to adapt."

Line 39. Space missing between "complex" and "and"


PAGE 12

Line 19. "�beyond 2000, EVEN IF EMISSIONS WERE TO BE REDUCED RADICALLY AT THAT TIME."

Line 21. Given the importance of the topic, it would be valuable if we could include some
specific examples of the WG1 findings about extreme events."


PAGE 14 (Table 1)

Based on the statement on page 10, line 31 that the "frequency and magnitude of many extreme
climate events increase", I had the following questions about Table 1:

Hot Days; Heat waves; Hail; Mid-latitude storms Suggest "Increased frequency AND INTENSITY"
under direction of change

Tornadoes/severe storms -- How about direction of change in "intensity"?

Noticed that tourism is only listed once (under ENSO). Seems logical that if ENSO-like
events trigger tourism impacts then other categories would also come into play. Candidates
would be Minimum Temperatures (can effect winter-based recreation), High Rainfall, and
some/all of the high temperature categories.

Under "Tropical Cyclones", since the abbreviation TC is only used once, I'd delete it from
first column and spell out TC in the ENSO row of column 5.

Chapter 8 brings out the importance of economic impacts on the government sector. I'd
suggest a footnote something along the lines of: "In many cases governments are also among
the impacted "sectors", especially when the insurance market is undeveloped, or where
government has assumed or be expected to assume a share of the risk explicitly. Important
examples include crop and flood insurance in many regions." The footnote could be linked to
the first use of the term "insurance" (i.e. row 3 of the table).


FIGURES

Figure 3. The benchmark of ~0.7C should be labeled (I presume this is the temperature rise
as of today). Perhaps this is what the sideways "observed Impacts" is supposed to mean, but
it's not entirely clear. Perhaps useful to indicate the range of temperature increases
found by WG1. Also, it should be noted whether or not this figure intends to capture the
"transitional" issues noted on page 6, line 32. If not, is there a way to somehow add this
dimension to this important diagram? Another question on this figure: Unclear the degree
to which this applies to "natural" versus "socioeconomic" systems. Any way to differentiate
in the diagram? At a minimum, the caption should clarify this.

New figure Suggestion. Figure 8-1 in Chapter 8 provides a 50-year view of weather-related
disaster costs, globally.

Neil Leary wrote:

> Dear Colleagues,
>
> Here's the new Technical Summary (TS). Please review and send comments by
> FRIDAY, 22 SEPTEMBER (same day comments on SPM are requested) to
> <ipcc@usgcrp.gov>.
>
> To avoid confusion, please write TS REVIEW in subject field when you send
> comments on the TS. Write SPM REVIEW in subject field when you send
> comments on the SPM.
>
> Please look for inconsistencies with SPM while reviewing. Also, for
> sections of TS that correspond to your chapter, please identify chapter,
> section and subsection where support for paragraphs can be found. Also -
> we still need good figures for the TS and SPM. Kasey selected some from
> the chapters to include. Let us know if you think they are the best ones
> to include.
>
> Some of the sections are identical, or nearly so, to the last version of
> the TS. Please send updated material for TS if your section is now out of
> date.
>
> Thanks, again
>
> Neil
>
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--

Evan Mills, Ph.D.
Energy Analysis Department
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
MS 90-4000
Berkeley, California 94720 USA
T: +1.510-486-6784; F: +1.510-486-6996
EmillsatXYZxyz.gov
http://eande.lbl.gov/CBS/Emills/


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