Friday, March 30, 2012

3015.txt

date: Wed, 01 Sep 1999 17:58:22 +0100
from: "Jenkins, Geoff" <gjjenkinsatXYZxyzo.gov.uk>
subject: CoP5 reporrt
to: "'parryml@aol.com'" <parrymlatXYZxyz.com>, "'n.w.arnell@soton.ac.uk'" <n.w.arnellatXYZxyzon.ac.uk>, "'m.cannell@ite.ac.uk'" <m.cannell@ite.ac.uk>, "'s.kovats@lshtm.ac.uk'" <s.kovatsatXYZxyztm.ac.uk>, "'mtjl.jei@uea.ac.uk'" <mtjl.jei@uea.ac.uk>, "'t.mcmichael@lshtm.ac.uk'" <t.mcmichaelatXYZxyztm.ac.uk>, "'r.nicholls@mdx.ac.uk'" <r.nichollsatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, "'martin.parry@uea.ac.uk'" <martin.parryatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, "'awhite@ite.ac.uk'" <awhite@ite.ac.uk>, "'m.hulme@uea.ac.uk'" <m.hulmeatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, "'penny_bramwell@detr.gsi.gov.uk'" <penny_bramwellatXYZxyzr.gsi.gov.uk>, "'caroline_fish@detr.gsi.gov.uk'" <caroline_fish@detr.gsi.gov.uk>

Dear Fast Trackers

I had a long meeting with DETR this morning about the fast track report for
Bonn.

Their main comment was from Henry Derwent (Director - Environment, Risks,
Atmosphere), who would like to bring out more detail in the Key Findings
about specific areas which could face substantial impacts (some of this is
already mentioned in your text and just needs pulling out - some will need
to be drafted based on maps etc), and then say that these impacts can be
reduced by stabilisation scenarios. He would also like to see maps much
bigger to show the detail of the impacts on specific countries - he realises
that there are uncertainties in such small scale detail, but we should be
able to cover that point in the text. The idea is that the changes from
present to 2080s would be shown for the three scenarios, with each map
taking half a page over a 2 page spread - this of course will make the
report longer by 4-6 pages or so.
Big maps would be of:

1 temperature - OK

2 precipitation - OK

3 change in biomass (Andy/Melvin - can you send me .ps files of each of the
six maps separately, please - we cant ungroup the block you have sent)

4 change in water stress (Nigel - can you send a water stress 3 up for the
2080s please - at present yours (fig 4) is for the 2050s)

5 crop yield - OK

6 sea level rise areas affacted (Robert - can you think of a way of showing
the areas worst affected by SLR and how these change under S550 and S750,
please - ie a map version of your fig 2 and 3 - something like the one we
used at Kyoto but with the coastal lines in different colours to represent
number of people flooded?)

7 CHANGE in transmission season of malaria - OK (but different to one in
draft)

Could those from whom I have requested revisions send them as soon as
possible, and at the latest by Monday - thanks.

DETR would also like to have the numbers of people affected by impacts in
the case of NO climate change, for comparison with the EXTRA number affected
by climate change scenarios. These would be in the text only. We did this
before, but not unifornmly. Could you please let me have these, for 2020s,
50s, 80s, in the next 2 days, please.

I will email you revised drafts of the text (changes will be mainly to key
findings to bring out the country/region aspects, but also include some
other changes in the body of the text to cover other comments from DETR, and
indeed yourselves) hopefully by Friday. Could you please send your agreement
or mods by Monday 6th to give us a chance of getting it produced in time.

I am sorry this is all a bit rushed, but you will recall that the plan
agreed on 28 June called for the first draft to be sent to DETR by 1 August,
and this ended up being 18 days late.

Because of the importance of the report as viewed by DETR, they will be
inviting Prescott to sign the Foreword.

The conclusion s of the report will be presented to an open meeting at CoP5
Bonn, just as we did at CoP4 Buenos Aires. I will present the climate
aspects, and DETR would like Martin Parry to present ALL the impacts areas -
otherwise it will get very bitty. I trust you will be happy to let Martin
represent your impacts area - there will be little time to go into anything
other than the basic message + 1 0r 2 figs in the report.

We will also have a stand at the conference, which we would like to have
staffed. Hadley Centre can do this to cope with questions on the climate,
but I would be grateful if this time we could also have a representative
from impacts groups as well during the period 25 Oct - 5 Nov. This period
could be shared, with one person doing a week or even 2 or 3 days. I would
be grateful if you could let me know if you would be available for this, and
if so what dates. Based on our experiences at Buenos Aires and Kyoto, it was
a rewarding task to talk to many of the people at the conference, many of
who had very little understanding of the subject and yet who were taking
some vital decisions (eg ministers, US congressmen, big business, etc)

Thanks

Geoff

Geoff Jenkins
Head, Climate Prediction Programme
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Met. Office
BRACKNELL RG12 2SZ
UK
Tel: +44 1344 85 6653
Fax: +44 1344 85 4898
http://www.meto.gov.uk/sec5/sec5pg1.html

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