Saturday, March 31, 2012

3043.txt

date: Fri, 30 May 2008 15:56:07 -0700
from: Ben Santer <santer1atXYZxyzl.gov>
subject: Next version of paper and response to Reviewers
to: "Thorne, Peter" <peter.thorneatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk>, Leopold Haimberger <leopold.haimbergeratXYZxyzvie.ac.at>, Karl Taylor <taylor13atXYZxyzl.gov>, Tom Wigley <wigleyatXYZxyz.ucar.edu>, John Lanzante <John.LanzanteatXYZxyza.gov>, ssolomon@frii.com, Melissa Free <Melissa.FreeatXYZxyza.gov>, peter gleckler <gleckler1atXYZxyzl.gov>, "'Philip D. Jones'" <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, Thomas R Karl <Thomas.R.KarlatXYZxyza.gov>, Steve Klein <klein21atXYZxyzl.llnl.gov>, carl mears <mearsatXYZxyzss.com>, Doug Nychka <nychkaatXYZxyzr.edu>, Gavin Schmidt <gschmidtatXYZxyzs.nasa.gov>, Steven Sherwood <Steven.SherwoodatXYZxyze.edu>, Frank Wentz <frank.wentzatXYZxyzss.com>

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Dear folks,

Here is the next version of our IJoC paper, together with the Supporting
Online Material and the detailed response to the comments of Reviewers 1
and 2.

There is one small issue I'd like to discuss. As I mentioned in a
previous email, I have now applied the "new" d1* test suggested by
Francis [see equation (12) in the revised manuscript] to synthetic data.
Results are shown in Figure 5B. I've also applied the "new" d1* test to
observed and simulated T2 and T2LT data (see Table 3 in revised
manuscript). I have not yet applied the new d1* to the modelled and
observed surface-minus-T2LT difference series. The d1* results in Table
6 are the OLD d1* results - not the new d1* results.

In practice, because the first term under the square root sign in
equation (12) is small relative to the second term, the new d1* results
are very similar to the old d1* results (which only involved the
standard error of the observed trend in the denominator). So the "old"
d1* results currently shown in Table 6 will probably not change by much
when I complete the "new" d1* tests with the modelled and observed
surface-minus-T2LT difference series. I should have those calculations
completed on Monday morning, and will revise Table 6 then.

I'd very much like to resubmit our manuscript on Tuesday of next week,
so that I can enjoy my birthday untroubled by thoughts of sigma{SE},
further sensitivity tests, etc. Please let me know if you think Tuesday
is an unrealistic target for resubmission.

We owe Francis a big debt of gratitude. I think that his review comments
(and his help over the past few days) have led to substantial
improvements in our paper.

With best regards,

Ben
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Benjamin D. Santer
Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
P.O. Box 808, Mail Stop L-103
Livermore, CA 94550, U.S.A.
Tel: (925) 422-2486
FAX: (925) 422-7675
email: santer1atXYZxyzl.gov
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