Saturday, March 31, 2012

3046.txt

date: Tue, 18 Jul 2000 16:41:12 +0100
from: Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: Re: Global Surface Record Must Be Wrong
to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk,t.osborn@uea.ac.uk

>X-Sender: mannatXYZxyzocene.evsc.virginia.edu
>Date: Tue, 18 Jul 2000 10:29:15 -0400
>To: cfkatXYZxyzl.gov
>From: "Michael E. Mann" <mannatXYZxyzginia.edu>
>Subject: Re: Global Surface Record Must Be Wrong
>Cc: rbradley@geo.umass.edu, p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
>
>Chick,
>
>This guys email is intentional deceipt. Our method, as you know, doesn't
>include any "splicing of two different datasets"-this is a myth perptuated
>by Singer and his band of hired guns, who haven't bothered to read our
>papers or the captions of the figures they like to mis-represent...
>
>Phil Jones, Ray Bradley, and Malcolm Hughes dispelled much of the mythology
>expressed below years ago.
>
>This is intentional misrepresentation. For his sake, I hope does not go
>public w/ such comments!
>
>mike
>
>>Date: Tue, 18 Jul 2000 08:38:35 +0100 (BST)
>>X-Envelope-From: richardatXYZxyzrtney01.cix.co.uk
>>X-Sender: courtney01atXYZxyzl.compulink.co.uk
>>To: Chick Keller <cfkatXYZxyzl.gov>
>>From: COURTNEY <richardatXYZxyzrtney01.cix.co.uk>
>>Subject: Re: Global Surface Record Must Be Wrong
>>X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by
>holocene.evsc.virginia.edu id DAA27832
>>
>>Dear Chick:
>>
>>Your past performance demonstrates that your recent piece to Peter Dietze is
>>unworthy of you. Smears and inuendoes are not adequate substitutes for
>>evidence and reasoned argument. You say;
>>"As to Michael Mann's "hocky stick" paleo-temperature graph, I realize why
>>many attack it for it puts the nail in the coffen of the argument that
>>recent natural variability is as large as what has been observed in the 20th
>>century."
>>
>>No ! People attack the 'hockey stick' because it is uses an improper
>>procedure to assess inadequate data as a method to provide a desired result.
>>I have defended Mann et al. from accusations of scientific "fraud" because I
>>am willing to accept that this was done in naive stupidity, but I am not
>>willing to accept that is good science. As you say, "people like Mann,
>>Briffa, Jones, etc." have conducted "careful work", but doing the wrong
>>thing carefully does not make it right.
>>
>>The 'hockey stick' is obtained by splicing two different data sets. Similar
>>data to the earlier data set exists for up to near the present and could
>>have been spliced on, but this would not show the 'hockey stick' and was not
>>done.
>>
>>Also, it is not true to say, as you have;
>>"But, it's going to take more than rhetoric about Europe's Little Ice Age
>>and Medieval Warming to get around the careful work of people like Mann,
>>Briffa, Jones, etc."
>>Nobody in their right mind is going to place more trust in the proxy data of
>>"Mann, Briffa, Jones, etc." than in the careful - and taxed - tabulations in
>>the Doomesday Book. The Medieval Warm Period is documented from places
>>distributed around the globe, and it is not adequate to assert that it was
>>"not global" because it did not happen everywhere at exactly the same time:
>>the claimed present day global warming is not happening everywhere at the
>>exactly the same time. Indeed, you say;
>>"recent temperature anomalies show that, while the tropics is cooler than
>>usual due to La Ni�a, the rest of the world is pretty much still as warm as
>>in 1998."
>>
>>It is historical revisionism to assert that the Little Ice Age and Medieval
>>Warming did not happen or were not globally significant. It will take much,
>>much more than analyses of sparse and debatable proxy data to achieve such a
>>dramatic overturning of all the historical and archaelogical evidence for
>>the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warm Period. Those who wish to make
>>such assertions should explain why all the historical and archaelogical
>>evidence is wrong or - failing that - they should expect to be ridiculed.
>>
>>All the best
>>
>>Richard
>>
>>>Dear Peter,
>>>
>>>In a recent message to Tom Wigley you wrote:
>>>
>>>>"Nowadays, what is measured is mostly quite correct. This holds for the
>>>>counts of frogs, butterflies and for the MSU measurements as well as for
>>>>the ground station readings. What is seriously flawed, are the biased
>>>>*interpretations*. So the surface record may be not wrong at all and
>>>>part of the warming is indeed anthropogenic. Wrong is only the paradigm
>>>>that ground warming is mostly caused by CO2 - and that this warming has
>>>>to show up in the lower troposphere as well. It is striking how the
>>>>ground warming grid pattern coincides with winter heating (Vincent Gray)
>>>>- if the warming was caused by CO2 it should rather be evenly
>>>>distributed over the globe, MSU-detected and only being modified by
>>>>meteorological conditions. Note that this energy caused warming only
>>>>depends on our energy demand and does hardly increase with CO2
>>>>concentration. So this warming should neither be allocated to the CO2
>>>>increment nor be misused with future CO2 projections."
>>>
>>>I have been looking at NCDC plots of global temperature anomalis divided
>>>into three regions- tropics (20N--20S) and the rest of the
>>>globe--(20N--90N) and (20S--90S). When looked at that way, recent
>>>temperature anomalies show that, while the tropics is cooler than usual due
>>>to La Ni�a, the rest of the world is pretty much still as warm as in 1998.
>>>This is particularly true of northern subtropics and southern subtropical
>>>oceans. The most recent data in fact show the following: for the period
>>>March-May 2000, the northern subtropics are the warmest march-may ever, and
>>>the southern subtropics are essentially as warm as in 1998. Note that this
>>>is not in the winter for either hemisphere. Thus, it would seem to be
>>>important not to make too much of the winter-only observations.
>>>
>>>As to Michael Mann's "hocky stick" paleo-temperature graph, I realize why
>>>many attack it for it puts the nail in the coffen of the argument that
>>>recent natural variability is as large as what has been observed in the
>>>20th century. Gene Parker in the most recent Physics Today just pushed
>>>that point of view citing 20 year-old work as his only support. But, it's
>>>going to take more than rhetoric about Europe's Little Ice Age and Medieval
>>>Warming to get around the careful work of people like Mann, Briffa, Jones,
>>>etc. And more recently , Tom Crowley's article in last week's Science!!!
>>>Their work includes those acknowledged regional events (LIA and MWP) and
>>>still shows the 20th cent. to be anomalous. (I might add here that it also
>>>calls into question suggestions that solar variability has an additional
>>>indirect forcing amplification since that should have come out of the data.
>>>Instead most published studies show a significant solar influence but a
>>>moderate one.) And so the only way around recent thousand year paleo
>>>studies is for more comprehensive hemispheric and global studies that fill
>>>in acknowledged gaps and in addition show that climate variability is
>>>larger than recent studies show.
>>>
>>> Perhaps a more fruitful approach would be to ask what the magnitude
>>>of regional variations has been in the past 150 years. If there are no
>>>regions whose temperature variations were very far from the global average,
>>>then one could legitimately ask how clear anomalies such as the little ice
>>>age could have been sustained in the face of the larger hemispheric
>>>climate. As one example I might cite the eastern United States and perhaps
>>>a large region to the north east since 1940. It clearly has not
>>>participated in the global trend, so much so that urban heat island fans
>>>cite it as an example of how good records (the US) don't show as much
>>>warming as bad records (the rest of the world).
>>>
>>>Regards,
>>>Charles. "Chick" F. Keller,
>>>Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics/University of California
>>>Mail Stop MS C-305
>>>Los Alamos National Laboratory
>>>Los Alamos, New Mexico, 87545
>>>cfk@lanl.gov
>>>Phone: (505) 667-0920
>>>FAX: (505) 665-3107
>>>http://www.igpp.lanl.gov/climate.html
>>>
>>>Every thoughtful man who hopes for the creation of a contemporary culture
>>>knows that this hinges on one central problem: to find a coherent relation
>>>between science and the humanities. --Jacob Bronowski
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>>
>_______________________________________________________________________
> Professor Michael E. Mann
> Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
> University of Virginia
> Charlottesville, VA 22903
>_______________________________________________________________________
>e-mail: mannatXYZxyzginia.edu Phone: (804) 924-7770 FAX: (804) 982-2137
> http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.html
>
>
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK

----------------------------------------------------------------------------


No comments:

Post a Comment