Saturday, April 28, 2012

3582.txt

cc: Clare Goodess <C.GoodessatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, C G Kilsby <c.g.kilsbyatXYZxyzcastle.ac.uk>, S.L.Barr@ncl.ac.uk, H J Fowler <h.j.fowleratXYZxyzcastle.ac.uk>, Richard Dawson <richard.dawsonatXYZxyzcastle.ac.uk>, "Brown Virginia Miss (ENV)" <Virginia.BrownatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
date: Wed, 12 Dec 2007 13:29:34 +0000
from: Mark McCarthy <mark.mccarthyatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk>
subject: RE: SCORCHIO and Tyndall projects
to: Jim Hall <jim.hallatXYZxyzcastle.ac.uk>

Hello Jim,

Please find responses below.

Kind regards,
Mark

On Mon, 2007-12-10 at 17:25 +0000, Jim Hall wrote:
> Hi Phil, Mark
>
> A month or so has passed since we set things in motion for the Tyndall
> component of the cities work. Here's a quick catchup.
>
> Mark:
> Are you still on track for your runs 1 and 2 in Jan 08?

Testing and bug fixing is taking frustratingly longer than planned, I am
discovering why no one has done this before I think!! But I am still on
track to submit a 20yr control run before I depart for the christmas
week. This is important to act as the reference against the UKCIP
control run to check the impact on equilibrium climate of the new land-
surface scheme. This will mean that I am then ready to submit the first
transient run in Jan, so late jan at earliest for results I think.

> Have you agreed anthropogenic heat inputs for London or do you want me
> to follow this up with Mike Davies?

No. I have estimates of heat flux for London boroughs estimated from the
London energy and CO2 inventory publication from the Mayor of London. As
we discussed it would probably be beneficial to make sure what I use is
consistent with LUCID. I will contact Mike and cc to you.

> Have you finalised the scenario for your run 2?

No. I was planning to submit a proposal for discussion ahead of the next
SCORCHIO meeting on Jan 17th. I have also suggested to Clare Goodess
that I visit UEA in the new year for further discussion, but we have not
fixed a date yet.

> Are you still ok to archive the hourly data for London and the pressure
> data for weather type classification?
>

My understanding was that it was daily resolution fields, and hourly
might be desirable but not essential. Hourly would provide significant
additional overheads for data storage and extraction. Would the loss of
hourly result in severe limitations of Tyndall work?

> Phil:
> Is the internal accounting with Tyndall sorted?
> Does the methodology I described (reproduced below) coincide with your
> understanding from our meeting?
> What are your proposed timescales, e.g. to start assembling weather
> station data and calibrating weather generator?
>
> Cheers
>
> Jim
>
>
> -------------------------------------------
> Professor of Earth Systems Engineering
> Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
> School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences
> Room 3.19 Cassie Building
> Newcastle University
> NE1 7RU
> UK
>
> Phone: +44 191 222 3660 (Direct)
> +44 191 222 6319 (Secretary)
> Fax: +44 191 222 6669
> Email: Jim.HallatXYZxyz.ac.uk
> http://www.ceg.ncl.ac.uk/profiles2/njh57
>
> MSc in Flood Risk Management:
> http://www.ncl.ac.uk/cegs.cpd/flexiblelearning/frm.php
>
>
>
>
> >-----Original Message-----
> >From: Jim Hall
> >Sent: 09 November 2007 13:52
> >To: 'Clare Goodess'; 'Phil Jones'
> >Cc: C G Kilsby; 'Stuart Barr (S.L.Barr@ncl.ac.uk)'; H J
> >Fowler; Richard Dawson; 'Brown Virginia Miss (ENV)'
> >Subject: RE: SCORCHIO and Tyndall projects
> >
> >
> >Dear Clare, Phil, Stuart, Hayley et al.
> >
> >Sorry it has taken me so long to get notes out from the
> >meeting with Phil et al on 26 October. In this message I will
> >try to summarise the methodology we are proposing and then
> >address the timescale, responsibilities and financial matters
> >for implementation for the Tyndall Cities work.
> >
> >
> >The background to this work is:
> >
> >In the Scorchio project Stuart Barr is developing a method for
> >obtaining spatial temperature patterns in urban areas from
> >satellite data. Clare, Chris and Phil are extending the
> >Betwixt weather generator and peturbing it with outputs from
> >the new Had runs. We wish to combine the spatial and temporal
> >perspectives in order generate spatial-temporal scenarios (the
> >extent to which this needs to be developed in Scorchio is open
> >to interpretation in the propsal).
> >We wish to apply this same approach to London for Tyndall. We
> >have an allocation of 17k in 07/08 and 17k in 08/09 for CRU to
> >contribute to this work. We have plans to direct some RA time
> >onto this in Newcastle for Stuart's area of the work (see below).
> >
> >
> >The Hadley Centre runs:
> >
> >I just had a very useful conversation with Mark McCarthy at
> >HC. His programme is as follows:
> >Run 1: Transient run (1950 to 2100) A1B scenario with const
> >anthropogenic heat source (7W/m2 for Manc). To be done "for
> >Jan 08"... Vague about whether this would be beginning or end of Jan.
> >Run 2: Same run with linearly increasing heat flux. Not yet
> >specified what this will be, but representing quite a strong
> >increase in heat flux. Could be run at about the same time as
> >Run 1 i.e. Jan next year.
> >Run 3: To be decided at a Scorchio stakeholder meeting in
> >March. Could be midway between 1 and 2 i.e. some adaptation.
> >
> >The urban anthropogenic heat fluxes will be applied for all
> >urban areas in the HadRM3 domain (i.e. we get London as well
> >as Manc and Shef). He was originally intending to apply the
> >Manc heat flux (i.e. 7W/m2) for all urban areas, but we
> >discussed the possibility of applying something different
> >(higher) for London and he agreed that this would be possible.
> >In London the grid cells allow some differentiation between
> >inner (Westminster has 60-100W/m2) and outer (about 10W/m2) London.
> >
> >The land surface tiling is based on 9 surface types, urban
> >being one of them.
> >
> >He can save daily pressure data for weather type
> >classification if required.
> >
> >He mentioned the LUCID work and was enthusiastic about the
> >Tyndall application providing a comparison for London with the
> >the LUCID outputs (on a 1km grid 100km*100km but can only be
> >run for 1 year due to computational cost).
> >
> >
> >Outline of the proposed methodology:
> >
> >For present climate:
> >Newcastle: Obtain AVHRR satellite images. Process to obtain
> >temperature patterns for each satellite image.
> >UEA: Obtain weather station data for London (Heathrow, St
> >James, Holburn, and couple of outside London sites: Gatwick?
> >Others?). Calibrate weather generator (with Chris K).
> >Establish method for scaling Newcastle temperature patterns
> >from selected weather station data. Cross-validate with other
> >weather stations. Examine the improvement gained if the
> >scaling relationship is conditioned on WG persistence
> >variables (WW, WD, DW, DD). This will deliver hindcast spatial
> >patterns of temperature (for comparison with any other
> >observations that my become available through LUCID) and
> >synthetic time series patterns of present day temperature.
> >
> >For future climate scenarios:
> >We have three anthropogenic heat source scenarios from Hadley
> >(runs 1 to 3 above). Because the runs are transient and are
> >based on the UKCIP08 ensemble, for any desired climate
> >scenario and time slice from the UKCIP08 ensemble we can match
> >the non-urban temperatures to extract the corresponding time
> >slice from these new urban runs (though we won't be able to
> >access the highest climate changes even at 2100).
> >UEA: Extract corresponding temperature change factors and
> >other stats for WG from Had runs. Run WG and scale spatial
> >temperature patterns as previously, conditioning as
> >appropriate on persistence variables.
> >Newcastle: Develop scenarios of changing land use and
> >anthropogenic heat sources. Use these to modify temperature
> >patterns used in the scenario generation.
> >
> >Hope that makes sense.
> >
> >
> >Next steps:
> >UEA: confirm funding arrangement with Virginia Brown. Tyndall
> >Phase 2 is pre-FEC so the funds can all go to Colin's salary.
> >UEA: confirm that methodology makes sense and confirm
> >timescales for delivery, given Had proposed timescale for RCM
> >runs (above).
> >UEA: start assembling weather station data and calibrating
> >weather generator
> >Stuart: start assembling AVHRR images and processing temperatures
> >Jim: email Mark McCarthy to confirm arrangements
> >Jim: confirm UCL Lucid heat flux estimate for London (I'll see
> >Mike Davies on 22 Nov)
> >
> >Is that all?
> >
> >
> >
> >Best regards
> >
> >Jim
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> From: Clare Goodess [mailto:C.Goodess@uea.ac.uk]
> >> Sent: 01 November 2007 19:15
> >> To: Jim Hall
> >> Subject: Fwd: SCORCHIO and Tyndall projects
> >>
> >> Hi Jim
> >>
> >> Phil, Colin and I met today to discuss the Tyndall urban work
> >> - and it sounds like you had a useful meeting with Phil last week.
> >>
> >> One thing that emerged from our meeting today, is how to handle the
> >> financial aspects. Is the money earmarked for us in the Newcastle
> >> budget? Will this be a subcontract?
> >> Presumably it will be full economic costs, but hopefully we
> >can ensure
> >> that the bulk goes on Colin's salary rather than having to cost in
> >> Phil's time.
> >>
> >> Is it Virginia Brown we need to liase with here?
> >>
> >> Best wishes, Clare
> >>
> >>
> >> >X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 7.1.0.9
> >> >Date: Mon, 29 Oct 2007 09:44:14 +0000
> >> >To: c.goodess@uea.ac.uk,c.harpham@uea.ac.uk
> >> >From: Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
> >> >Subject: SCORCHIO and Tyndall projects
> >> >
> >> > Clare,
> >> > The attached is a summary of discussions I had with Jim
> >> Hall and
> >> > others last Friday in Newcastle.
> >> >
> >> > Cheers
> >> > Phil
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >Prof. Phil Jones
> >> >Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
> >> >School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
> >> >University of East Anglia
> >> >Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
> >> >NR4 7TJ
> >> >UK
> >> >-------------------------------------------------------------
> >> ----------
> >> >-----
> >> >
> >> >
> >>
> >> Dr Clare Goodess
> >> Climatic Research Unit
> >> School of Environmental Sciences
> >> University of East Anglia
> >> Norwich
> >> NR4 7TJ
> >> UK
> >>
> >> Tel: +44 -1603 592875
> >> Fax: +44 -1603 507784
> >> Web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/
> >> http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~clareg/clare.htm
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >
--
Mark McCarthy Climate Impacts Scientist
Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change,
Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB
Tel: +44(0)1392 884672
Fax: +44(0)1392 885681
email: mark.mccarthyatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk
web: www.metoffice.gov.uk

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