Saturday, April 28, 2012

3585.txt

date: Fri Mar 12 16:46:56 2004
from: Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: Re: [Fwd: RE: External contracts]
to: "Parker, David (work)" <david.parkeratXYZxyzoffice.com>

David,
Thanks for the emails. I've not got the tape/disk you refer to. We did send you back
Stornoway some years ago.
No need for anything yet, just keep it safe down there. Geoff/Defra may decide
the work not important, but you should write up what you've done. Keep Simon
informed as it might help convince whoever of the need to do more.
Cheers
Phil
At 16:21 12/03/2004 +0000, you wrote:

Phil
P.S. In the work I referred to, I "found" all the requisite station
daily data post-1878 except Cambridge pre-1911. Have you got this on a
tape/disk we sent you some years ago?
Thanks
David
On Fri, 2004-03-12 at 15:01, Phil Jones wrote:
> Simon et al,
> Seeing how you put these things together by looking at what
> Philip sent me (and
> commented) on re HadCRUT3(v), here are a few thoughts on the CET
> work. I think I
> can follow all of Geoff's email except the reference to Hoty?
>
> Assumed in the thoughts below that 1772 and 1878 stay as the
> starting dates.
>
> Products
>
> 1. New monthly and daily mean temp serie s for CET from 1772 onwards.
> 2. New daily max/min temp series for CET from 1878.
> 3. Regional daily mean/max/min series from about 1890.
> 4. Some possible work on the CET series before 1772, but this could
> likely take much more
> effort than resources allow.
>
> Ensure consistency between the products in 1 and 2.
>
> Available data/other input
>
> 1. All the current CET daily/monthly mean/max/min files (both as
> measured and urban
> adjusted).
> 2. All the original daily data used in Parker at al. (1992).
> 3. All the new daily temperature series currently being digitized.
> 4. A look through the Manley 'archive' - at Cambridge according to
> Max Beran, but not very
> informative, hence Max's decision not to look into it any more.
>
> Issues (believing that the best way to do the work is to get a
> monthly series first,
> then produce the daily and make it agree, i.e. a la
> Parker et al., 1992).
>
> 1. Develop new monthly CET series from the current/new digitized data
> available. Similar
> sort of study to the work I've done for SNIFFER for Scotland and
> N. Ireland. Needs a
> thorough assessment of the long-term homogeneity of all the series
> for both monthly
> &n bsp; mean temperature (1772 onwards) and also for DTR (from
> 1878).
>
> 2. At the same time and iterating with (1) homogeneity check on all
> the daily series, to
> make sure there are no extremes only at single stations. This is
> to ensure the subsequent
> daily series can be believed for extremes and other attributes
> (like day-to-day changes)
> can all be believed.
>
> 3. Develop the daily series for CET (mean from 1772 and max/min from
> 1878). Need to
> account for changing numbers of stations through time in the CET
> and the regional
> series - not just as in Parker et al. but also wrt day-to-day
> differences.
>
> 4. Decide how many regions we think are coherent. Do we bring in the
> Scottish and N. Irish
> series in this? There should be less regions than the 9 we have
> for the UK for precip
> ; as these were developed for precip.
>
>
> Remembering all the time
>
> 1. We want errors on all the series.
> 2. Updating should be simple and will need to account for continued
> automation.
> 3. Some reassessment of urban effects/screens etc.
>
> All the above, just first thoughts on a Friday afternoon after an
> exhaustive week. All the
> above should be achievable within your budget (except for the pre
> -1772 stuff).
>
> Additional thought. On this web page
> [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/academic/studentships/2004/jones.htm
> there is an outline for a studentship. I won't be getting one this
> year as I've got too many
> at the moment. Despite that I had to put a studentship subject to
> ENV. Had a bit of interest
> from 4 students. This could be expanded to include temperatur e at
> Paris/London as well
> as the pressure data. These two series (along with De Bilt and maybe
> a bit from
> Edinburgh/Armagh) are the only ones that will help assess CET
> pre-1772. This might be
> a useful subject for a future Case Studentship. Much of the Paris
> data is digitized - only
> about 50 years (from 1715-65) to locate. Suspect the daily CET data
> from 1772 includes
> a site in London. So needs some searches of archives in London. I
> know whe re the data are
> for Paris. The two produce (with their MSLP data) an excellent NAO
> proxy for the winter
> half of the year.
>
> Cheers
> Phil
>
>
>
>
> At 11:35 12/03/2004 +0000, Simon Tett wrote:
> > All,
> > see below. I would appreciate your thoughts -- not urgently
> > but by the end of march.
> >
> > Simon
> >
> > - ------- Original Message --------
> > Subject: RE: External contracts
> > Date: Fri, 12 Mar 2004 09:40:46 -0000
> > From: Jenkins, Geoff <gjjenkinsatXYZxyzKTOP.FRD.METOFFICE.COM>
> > To: Tett, Simon <simon.tettatXYZxyzKTOP.FRD.METOFFICE.COM>
> >
> > Well, lets see if we can flog it to defra first.
> > Can you worjk up a drfat bid please, ie aim, what defra get from it,
> > how
> > they would use it policy-wise (eg to help sell adaptation to the
> > regions
> > etc), work plan deliverables, cost etc. w ould this replace SNIFFER?
> > Whay about CET - are the plans well in place for its continuity,
> > automation, overlap etc etc on the GMR contracst?
> > What about all that old Hoty stuff about IR sheltering and tree
> > growth -
> > is that all tucked away?
> > No rush to reply
> > Geoff
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Tett, Simon
> > Sent: 09 March 2004 15:26
> > To: Geoff Jenkins
> > Cc: Chris Folland
> > Subject: External contracts
> >
> >
> > Geoff,
> > &nb sp; I'm looking ahead a bit! For 2005/2006 it would be
> > useful to use
> > the
> > digitized daily temperature data to generate daily regional
> > indices. It
> >
> > would also be good to re-examine daily CET at the same time -- it
> > not
> > being clear what Manley actually did. Outcome of this would be daily
> > regional series from 1890 to present + daily CET from 177X to
> > present.
> > All with error estimates and corrected for bias. I don't think my
> > team
> > is the right place to do this work but think that Phil Jones at CRU
> > is.
> > Can we let a contract to do this work in 05/06? ( 1 person year =
> > 50/60
> > K + a bit of travel)
> >
> > Simon
> > --
> > Dr Simon Tett Managing Scientist, Data development and
> > applications.
> > Met Office Hadley Centre (Reading Unit)
> > Meteorology Building, University of Reading Reading RG6 6BB
> > Tel: +44 (0)118 378 5614 Fax +44 (0)118 378 5615
> > Mobile: + 44-(0)77 538 80696
> > I work from home about 2 days/week. Tel: +44 (0)20 8874 2751
> > E-mail: simon.tettatXYZxyzoffice.com [2]http://www.metoffice.com
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > --
> > Dr Simon Tett Managing Scientist, Data development and
> > applications.
> > Met Office Hadley Centre (Reading Unit)
> > Meteorology Building, University of Reading Reading RG6 6BB
> > Tel: +44 (0)118 378 56 14 Fax +44 (0)118 378 5615
> > Mobile: +44-(0)77 538 80696
> > I work from home about 2 days/week. Tel: +44 (0)20 8874 2751
> > E-mail: simon.tettatXYZxyzoffice.com [3]http://www.metoffice.com
> Prof. Phil Jones
> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 <
> br> University of East Anglia
> Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
> NR4 7TJ
> UK
> ;
>
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
& nbsp;
--
David E Parker
A2_W052 Met Office
FitzRoy Road EXETER EX1 3PB UK
email: david.parkeratXYZxyzoffice.com
Tel: +44-1392-886649 Fax: +44-1392-885681

Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
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