Monday, April 30, 2012

3658.txt

cc: tar_revedatXYZxyzcrp.gov
date: Sun, 29 Nov 1998 09:31:21 -0800 (PST)
from: Stephen H Schneider <shsatXYZxyzand.Stanford.EDU>
subject: E-MAIL CONF FOR CHAPT 1 WG2
to: b.walker@dwe.csiro.au, baethgen@un.undp.org.uy, ch11@eng.cam.ac.uk, chris.hope@jims.cam.ac.uk, Dave Dokken <ddokkenatXYZxyzcrp.gov>, ddokken@earth.usgcrp.gov, hssam@bath.ac.uk, jadejuwo@oauife.edu.ng, jpbruce@sympatico.ca, leary.neil@epamail.epa.gov, meteonat@telecom-plus.sn, rrichels@epri.com, "Dr. Jose Sarukhan" <sarukhan@servidor.unam.mx>, shs@leland.Stanford.EDU, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele <vanypersele@astr.ucl.ac.be>

Hello All, and welcome to our two year process of preparing the
introductory chapter for IPCC WG2 TAR(good thing all of you are familar
with all this acronym stuff or we'd spend even more hours in front of
computer screens than now!). Although two years seems like a long time,
there will only be a handfull of meetings and many rounds of review and
rewriting, so the idea of the e-mail conference that Neil Leary has set up
is a good way to jump start our tasks--indeed, it worked well for Bad
Munstereifel workshop and for a just concluded e-mail conference on four
cross-cutting theme papers(I personally was involved in the uncertainties
draft, and was very pleased at the good help we got). Our guidance from
Neil in an e-mail dated 24 Nov( which unfortunately I didn't see until
today as I'm on travel and will not be e-mail accessible again until next
Saturday dec 5) outlines our tasks in two parts. Part I asks "authors of
each chapter to communicate among themselves by e-mail regarding issues
related to the development of their chapter." Part II (to begin Dec7 until
Dec 14) will be devoted "to cross chapter working group issues..to provide
authors an opportunity to discuss the [guidance]papers [already prepared
and to be distributed by the TSU soon I presume] and provide authors an
oportunity to discuss additional cross-cutting issues". My view is that we
should combine these two functions, since our Chapter has a rather unique
mission relative to other "more disciplinary" chapters: we are to write in
clear generalist language( Scientific American style for example) why
Impacts are important, and to provide clear but non-technical definitions
of terms and concepts that will appear throughout the WG2 report(and
cross-cuts to other working groups). That of necessity will force us to be
"roving ambassadors" at Working Group meetings in the sense that our
introductory roadmap to the entire WG2 report must be consitent with all
the other chapters. Our task is not to summarize thier finding--that is
what the SPM is for--but rather to put the purpose of the various other
chapters in perspective and to help our very divese readership with a
variety of backgrounds to have an overview of the connections between
chapters. So while we will thus spend considerable time as individuals
"crashing" the writing sessions of other chapters to assure that our
introductory task is consistent with their detailed assessments, I believe
we can most productively use the first part of our e-mail conference time
reviewing the entire WG2 outline(attatched below) and then to be sure that
our preliminary Chapter 1 outline is broadly consistent with the overall
Working Group agenda. Although the Bad Munstereifel effort was directed
at that goal(and a considerable effort from the CLAs and the TSU head
after the B-M meeting), it undoubtedly could be improved. Also, if anyone
sees parts of the Chapt 1 outline that seems particularly appropriate for
that Lead Author, volunteers are welcome to take initial responsibility
for drafting a more fleshed out next iteration outline. Finally, since we
must be consitent in our definitions of many policy-related concepts(e.g.,
adaptability, integrated assessment etc) we will have to coordinate very
closely with WG2 Chapt 19 lead Authors and a number of Chapters in WG3. Of
course, when you all see the four latest versions of the cross-cutting
guidance papers, it will be much easier for us to do our job of revising
the current outline for Chapt 1 to be compatible with the rest of the
Report. So in essence, we may need to postpone the bulk of our e-mail
conversation a week or so until we've had a chance to read the four
guidance papers. Neil and Dave Dokken will get a copy of this e-mail, and
thus will soon alert us as to when to expect the guidance papers to
arrive. Also, if anyone has technical problems(e.g., I can only down load
Windows 95 attatchments in Word) we should let the TSU people help us
solve those by letting them know the details as soon as possible.
Although we have a very daunting task to summarize in clear language
the main concepts and terms of the WG 2 report, I very much look forward
to this challenge and to work with all of you in accomplishing our
important task of helping decisionmakers and the scientific community
alike to get a clear and credible picture of the state of the science in
climatic impacts assessment research.
Cheers, Steve
PS- Note in particular the annoted version of Chapt 1 at the very end of
the attatched e-mail from Dave Dokken. That is our first task--to make
sure it is comprehensive and consistent with rest of WG2 Report, and then
to flesh it out more and have individual Lead Authors volunteer to take
resposibility for preparing each subsection of the first draft

------
Stephen H. Schneider
Dept. of Biological Sciences
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305-5020 U.S.A.

Tel: (650)725-9978
Fax: (650)725-4387
shsatXYZxyzand.stanford.edu

---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Mon, 2 Nov 1998 17:58:44 -0500
From: Dave Dokken <ddokkenatXYZxyzcrp.gov>
(excerpts from this e-mail appear below, SHS)

...the TSU will start sending out invitations to the First Lead Authors
Meeting, which will be held in Geneva, Switzerland, 5-8 January 1999. Once
those have gone out, we will initiate the e-mail conference (as indicated
on the master schedule distributed 15 October).

All of your team members should definitely be aware of their appointments,
so you should feel free to broadcast your welcome if you have not done so
already. In a couple of the preliminary contacts I've seen, however, I've
noticed that outdated versions of the outline (pre-Vienna) were
distributed. For ease of reference, I am lifting the approved WG2 outline
AND the relevant portion of the annotated version that came out of the
Scoping Meeting (Bad Munstereifel, June 1998). You'll note that the
fleshed-out version does not exactly correspond with that of the abridged
(approved at IPCC Plenary XIV). But it's fairly close. It's your job to
bring them in line, and to hone the annotated outline in consultation with
your team (identifying writing assignments in the process) and in the
larger forum of the WG2-wide e-mail conference. We've yet to decide whether
or not to confine the broader e-mail conference to just CLAs; including all
LAs and REs could prove unwieldy.


Sincerely,

dave

_________

[IPCC Plenary XIV -- Approved Abridged Version]

IPCC Third Assessment Report
Working Group II
Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability

Part I. Setting the Stage for Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment

Chapter 1. Overview (15 pp.)

Chapter 1 will explain the importance of the issue of climate change
impacts on environmental and human systems, introduce some of the concepts
and terms used in the report, and provide a guide for using the report in
language accessible to non-specialist audiences.

Executive Summary
1.1 Climate change impacts: what is potentially at stake
1.2 Overview of policy-relevant scientific/technical questions
addressed in the report
1.3 The nature of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability: illustration
and integration of key concepts
1.4 Audiences and information needs addressed
1.5 "Users' Guide" to the WG II TAR (e.g., treatment of
uncertainties/levels of confidence)
Chapter 2. Methods and Tools (20 pp.)

This chapter will assess approaches available in the literature and
describe the methods and tools that will be used in regional and sectoral
analyses.

Executive Summary
2.1 Observational studies, including non-climate indicators of climate
change and responses to climate variability
2.2 Methods for assessing impacts and vulnerability, including
historical case studies, scenario analysis, thresholds, modeling, critical
zones and populations, tolerable windows, and integrated assessment
2.3 Costing and valuation methods and issues (joint with WG III, Chapter 7)
2.4 Decision analytic methods and frameworks (joint with WG III, Chapter 10)
2.5 Alternative methods for explicitly incorporating uncertainty and
characterizing "levels of confidence"
Chapter 3: Development and Application of Scenarios in Climate Change
Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment (20 pp.)

Executive Summary
3.1 Definitions and uses of scenarios
3.2 Types of global change scenarios
3.3 Characterizing present-day conditions (baselines)
3.4 Developing socio-economic scenarios (c.f. WG III Chapter 2)
3.5 Developing land surface change scenarios
3.6 Developing environmental scenarios
3.7 Developing climate change scenarios (cross cut to WG I Chapter 13)
3.8 Representing feedbacks and consistency between scenarios
3.9 Description and evaluation of baseline data and projections
provided by the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (DDC)
3.10 Facilitating the distribution, use, and interpretation of scenarios


Part II. Sectors and Systems: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability

Building on the conclusions of the SAR, recent developments in the state of
knowledge of climate change impacts will be assessed. Special attention
will be given to vulnerabilities, natural variability, baseline trends,
cross-sectoral issues, non-linear interactions, and adaptation options. The
developments in experimental work, observations, and modeling that
contributed to advances in the state of knowledge will be assessed,
including estimation of confidence in reported results. For major
components and subcomponents, the chapters of this section will assess or
review (as relevant):
� Current status and projected trends/demands
� Major findings of SAR with respect to systems and human uses
� Analysis of natural response of systems (sensitivity, vulnerability,
adaptation) using scenarios as per Chapter 3
� New knowledge, including:
a. direct effects of CO2 fertilization/N deposition, surface ozone
b. direct effects of climate variables
c. effects of variability/extreme events
d. interactions with other environmental conditions (e.g., pollution)
e. effects on production, distribution (market/non-market) systems,
and human communities
f. effects on biodiversity and wildlifeg. potential surprises,
thresholds, and indicators of system instability
h. directed adaptation and responses
i. tools/methods/approaches/models used in developing new knowledge,
including assumptions, sensitivities, and scenarios used in models

Chapter 4: Hydrology and Water Resources (20 pp.)

Executive Summary
4.1 Introduction and scope (including types of effects and
cross-sectoral impacts)
4.2 The state of knowledge of climate change impacts on hydrology and
water resources
4.3 The hydrological cycle, including precipitation, evaporation,
runoff, soil moisture, groundwater, and extreme hydrological events,
including effects on erosion
4.4 Water demands (quantity and quality) for natural and managed
ecosystems, municipal, industrial, navigation, and recreational uses, and
competition among demands
4.5 Water supply (quantity and quality) for different types of systems
4.6 Management implications and adaptation options, including responses
to extreme hydrological events
4.7 Integration, including relative importance of climate change and
other pressures, identification of key vulnerabilities, potential for
non-linear interactions, and other cross-cutting issues
4.8 Science and information needs, including monitoring

Chapter 5: Natural and Managed Ecosystems (40 pp.)

Executive Summary
5.1 Introduction and scope (including types of effects and
cross-sectoral impacts)
5.2 The state of knowledge of climate change impacts on landscapes:
global distribution of biomes/vegetation types/ecotones, including
transitions from one type of system to another; ecosystem
functions/processes, including state of knowledge of carbon budget;
biodiversity, migratory wildlife, and endangered species; protected areas
and conservation reserves; global markets and distribution of food and
fiber
5.3 Agriculture
5.4 Grasslands/Rangelands/Grazing systems
5.5 Savannas/Woodlands
5.6 Forests/Forestry
5.7 Deserts
5.8 Lakes/Streams/Freshwater fisheries and aquaculture
5.9 Wetlands
5.10 Mountain Regions
5.11 Cryosphere
5.12 Integration, including relative importance of climate change and
other pressures, identification of key vulnerabilities, adaptation
potential and opportunities, valuation of systems and their services,
potential for non-linear interactions, and other cross-cutting issues
5.13 Science and information needs, including monitoring

Chapter 6: Coastal Zones and Marine Ecosystems (20 pp.)

Executive Summary
6.1 Introduction and scope (including types of effects and
cross-sectoral impacts)
6.2 The state of knowledge of climate change impacts on coastal zones
and marine ecosystems, including sea-level rise
6.3 Ecosystems (including fisheries) and biogeochemical functions
6.4 Biogeophysical aspects of coastal zones
6.5 Indices of social and economic vulnerability of coastal zones to
climate change and sea-level change
6.6 Adaptation
6.7 Integration, including relative importance of climate change and
other pressures, identification of key vulnerabilities, potential for
non-linear interactions, and other cross-cutting issues
6.8 Science and information needs, including monitoring

Chapter 7: Energy, Industry, and Settlements (20 pp.)

Executive Summary
7.1 Introduction and scope (including types of effects and
cross-sectoral impacts)
7.2 The state of knowledge of climate change impacts on human
population migration/security and settlements
7.3 Industry, energy, transportation, and other climate-sensitive sectors
7.4 Infrastructure (e.g., utilities, waste management, sanitation)
7.5 Vulnerabilities of human settlements by type (e.g., coastal, arid
region, agrarian, urban)
7.6 Management implications and adaptation options
7.7 Integration, including relative importance of climate change and
other pressures, identification of key vulnerabilities, potential for
non-linear interactions, and other cross-cutting issues
7.8 Science and information needs, including monitoring

Chapter 8: Financial Services (15 pp.)

Executive Summary
8.1 Introduction and scope (including types of effects and
cross-sectoral impacts)
8.2 The state of knowledge of climate change impacts and adaptation
8.3 Financial aspects of impacts and adaptation
8.4 Institutional mechanisms to cover the cost of impacts and adaptation
investment, including insurance, governmental, and multi-lateral mechanisms
8.5 Private-sector mechanisms, including primary insurance and reinsurance
8.6 Governmental and multilateral financial mechanisms
8.7 Other financial services
8.8 Case studies
8.9 Integration, including relative importance of climate change and
other pressures, identification of key vulnerabilities, potential for
non-linear interactions, and other cross-cutting issues
8.10 Science and information needs, including monitoring

Chapter 9: Human Health (20 pp.)

Executive Summary
9.1 Introduction and scope (including types of effects and
cross-sectoral impacts)
9.2 The state of knowledge of climate change impacts on health
9.3 Sensitivity, adaptation and vulnerability
9.4 Thermal stresses (heatwaves, cold seasons)
9.5 Extreme weather events
9.6 Air pollution (gases, fine particulates)
9.7 Aeroallergens (spores, moulds, etc.)
9.8 Vector-borne infectious diseases
9.9 Other infectious diseases (esp. water-borne and food-borne)
9.10 Integration, including relative importance of climate change and
other pressures; identification of key vulnerabilities; health as
integrating concept and its relationship to water resources/quality,
food/fiber security, natural and managed ecosystems interactions, and
socio-economic disruption/migration; potential for non-linear interactions;
and other cross-cutting issues
9.11 Science and information needs, including monitoring

Part III. Regional Analyses: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability

Each chapter will focus on key findings of the Regional Impacts Special
Report and update regional baselines and trends (climate, socio-economic,
and other environmental). Each chapter and subchapter will explore what has
been learned regarding the context of change, sensitivity, adaptation, and
vulnerability of key sectors and an integrated cross-sectoral and
cross-regional analyses. The template will be tailored as appropriate for
each region, giving full consideration to social/equity issues relevant to
the region or sectors.

Common template for each chapter

Executive Summary
X.1 Summary of the important issues in the Regional Impacts Special Report
X.2 Baseline data, including climatic and socio-economic
X.3 Regional scenarios
X.4 Hydrology and water resources
X.5 Ecosystems and agriculture, including food security
X.6 Coastal zones and marine ecosystems, and sea-level change
X.7 Energy, industry, and settlements
X.8 Financial services
X.9 Human health
X.10 Integration and synthesis, including relative importance of climate
change and other pressures, identification of key vulnerabilities,
adaptation potential and opportunities, valuation of systems and their
services, potential for non-linear interactions, risks and uncertainties,
and other cross-cutting issues. A variety of approaches will be used,
including historical case studies, scenario analysis, thresholds, modeling,
critical zones and populations, tolerable windows, and integrated
assessment

Chapter 10: Africa (25 pp.)

Chapter 11: Asia (45 pp.)

Chapter 12: Australasia (20 pp.)

Chapter 13: Europe (25 pp.)

Chapter 14: Latin America (25 pp.)

Chapter 15: North America (25 pp.)

Chapter 16: Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic) (15 pp.)

Chapter 17: Small Island States (25 pp.)


Part IV. Global Issues and Synthesis

This section will focus on cross sectoral and cross regional analyses,
building upon the preceding sections and considering cumulative effects.
Such comparison will allow relative scaling of vulnerability across sectors
and regions with respect to ecosystems, including wildlife, hydrology and
water resources, agriculture and forestry, coastal zones and marine
ecosystems, human settlements, financial services, and human health. This
section will synthesize the scientific, technical, environmental, economic,
and social aspects of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability.

Chapter 18. Adaptation to Climate Change in the Context of Sustainable
Development and Equity (20 pp.)

This chapter will analyze the opportunities for and barriers to adaptation
identified in the regional chapters of the report. It will highlight
options for a) the UNFCCC; b) multilateral organizations; c) national
governments; and d) other actors (including the private sector) to
facilitate adaptation, particularly for vulnerable populations, countries,
or zones. The chapter will be organized around a series of key questions.

Executive Summary
18.1 Summary of sectoral and regional changes, and adaptation options
18.2 Lessons learned from past experience with adaptation to climate
variability and change, including discussion of importance of time frames
18.3 Factors that account for adaptation success (and failure), and
current trends
18.4 Adaptation to climate change in the development context
18.5 Equity and adaptation to climate change
18.6 Barriers and limits that hinder adaptation, and options for
enhancing successful adaptation

Chapter 19: Synthesis and Integration of Impacts, Adaptation, and
Vulnerability (35 pp.)

In this chapter, emphasis will be placed on Article 2 of the UNFCCC and key
provisions [e.g., Articles 2.3, 3.14, and 10(d)] of the Kyoto Protocol,
drawing on important issues that occur in many regions/sectors, or for
which there will be cross-regional or global interactions. Potential global
impacts of stabilization of atmospheric concentrations of GHGs at a variety
of levels will be assessed, including assessment of uncertainties.
Information from the other sections of the report also will be integrated
to address key policy-relevant questions identified by Parties to the
UNFCCC and other stakeholders. The authors will assess vulnerability within
the framework of sustainable development and equity, acknowledging common
but differentiated responsibilities. The chapter will be divided into the
following sections:

Executive Summary
19.1 Impacts associated with different rates and magnitudes of change: A
review of comprehensive approaches, including intercomparison of results
19.2 Comparative analysis of vulnerability in different regions and across
different sectors/systems
19.3 Analysis of sensitivities and critical thresholds of change
(magnitudes and rates) for sectors and systems, including biospheric
components of the climate system
19.4 What observations are necessary to test estimates of the
relationship between emissions trajectories and impacts?
19.5 The potential for unexpected changes
19.6 Strengths and weaknesses of current approaches, and implicit
research needs
19.7 Analyses focusing on policy-relevant scientific/technical
questions, including decisionmaking in the face of uncertainties; state of
knowledge regarding the extent and distribution of vulnerability; equity
issues; and, with Working Group III, balancing adaptation and mitigation.

TOTAL PAGE LENGTH = ~450 pp. (plus references)

_____________

[Bad Munstereifel - Annotated Version]

Part I. Setting the Stage for Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment

Chapter 1. Overview of Impacts Issues

Chapter 1 will explain the importance of the issue of climate change
impacts on environmental and human systems, introduce some of the concepts
and terms used in the report, and provide a guide for using the report in
language accessible to non-specialist audiences.

1.1 Climate change impacts: what is potentially at stake
� Context of change-current state of human-environment system, and
disturbances to and response of this system, including issues such as
globalization, economic and social change, land-use changes, and
relationships with sustainability)
� An overview of kinds of potential effects and indicators of change
� Potential interactive and combined effects, e.g., fragmented habitats and
climate change; interacting effects of changes in surface temperature, CO2,
O3 on plant growth and productivity; and interaction of global, regional,
and local environmental changes on human health

1.2 Overview of policy-relevant scientific/technical questions addressed
in the report
� Impacts associated with different rates and magnitudes of change
� Thresholds and unexpected, non-linear interactions
� Valuation of impacts and equity-efficiency issues
� Particularly vulnerable populations, countries, and zones
� Adaptation options: synergies and tradeoffs with other
environmental/social issues
� Synergies and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation
� Synergies and trade-offs between early and delayed response

1.3 The nature of vulnerability: illustration and integration of key concepts
� Interactions of sensitivity, adaptation, and other key concepts
� Complexities of analysis (e.g., risk, uncertainty, extreme events,
scaling, multidisciplinarity, validation)

1.4 Audiences and information needs addressed
� UNFCCC: assessment of vulnerability and options for adaptation in UNFCCC
(Article 2) and Kyoto Protocol
� Desertification and Biodiversity Conventions: linkages with climate
change, effects of linkages on vulnerability
� Resource planners and managers in national and sub-national institutions
� Specialized international institutions
� NGOs, businesses and other groups

1.5 "Users' Guide" for the Assessment



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