Monday, June 18, 2012

5285.txt

cc: david.parkeratXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk
date: Tue Nov 30 08:38:48 2004
from: Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: RE: 2004 temperatures
to: "Roland Pease" <roland.peaseatXYZxyz.co.uk>

Roland,
Sending again. Mistyped something in David's email.
Phil
Roland,
The warmest ten years are 1998 (0.58), 2002 (0.47), 2003 (0.47), 2004 (0.44),
2001 (0.42) 1997 (0.41), 1995 (0.37), 1999 (0.34), 1990 (0.31), 2000 (0.29). Values
are deg C above the 1961-90 average. 2004 is still provisional. It could exceed 2002/3 or
it
could get beaten by 2001/1997. There are 2 months to go in (Nov and Dec). It shouldn't
drop or
gain any more positions.

So the 10 warmest years have all occurred since 1989: in the last 15 complete years
(i.e. 1990-2004). Another statement could be that the 6 warmest years have occurred in
the last 8 years (1997-2004) and the two that are missing are 1999 and 2000 are 8th and
10th respectively. So 9 of the 10 warmest years have occurred in the last 10 years
(1995-2004).
This statement would seem to be the best.
The only year not in the 10 warmest years that was in the last 10 (1995-2004) was 1996.
1990
is there instead.
I've cc'd this message to David Parker as around the 10-15th December, the Met Office
will be issuing a press release (probably at the same time as the World Meteorological
Organization in Geneva).
Cheers
Phil
At 16:49 29/11/2004, you wrote:

Phil,

Thanks. Further, are we yet at the point where all of the past ten years are in the
top-ten positions (ie has the rogue 'cool' year dropped out at the bottom yet?)

Roland



-----Original Message-----
From: Phil Jones [[1]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk]
Sent: 26 November 2004 13:37
To: Roland Pease
Subject: Re: 2004 temperatures
Roland,
2004 will be the 4th warmest year, behind 1998 (warmest) and 2002/3 (which are
equal second).
On the other question, it is best to ask Mike Mann. He is mannatXYZxyzginia.edu .
Mike has written a response and there was a piece commenting on the vol Storch et al.
paper in Science. Mike's is presumably being reviewed.
Cheers
Phil
At 11:27 26/11/2004, you wrote:

Dear Professor Jones,
We came to interview you last year for "Climate Wars" on radio 4.
I've been asked to record a report as a "curtain raiser" (as we call them) for the
UNFCCC Buenos Aires meeting, on the theme of <how do we know the climate is warming>.
I was wondering whether at this stage you have a good idea what this year's global mean
temperature will be, to keep the facts as current as possible. Also, has there been any
progress or additional support on the Mann et al 'hockey stick'. von Storch sent me a
critique of the statistical approach used in the paper (published in Science) - has
there been or is there likely to be a response?
Yours sincerely, Roland
Roland Pease
BBC Radio Science Unit
tel (44) 207 557 3886 (w)
fax (44) 207 557 3008
roland.peaseatXYZxyz.co.uk
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[5]http://www.bbc.co.uk/
This e-mail (and any attachments) is confidential and may contain
personal views which are not the views of the BBC unless specifically
stated.
If you have received it in error, please delete it from your system.
Do not use, copy or disclose the information in any way nor act in
reliance on it and notify the sender immediately. Please note that the
BBC monitors e-mails sent or received.
Further communication will signify your consent to this.

Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
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