Monday, June 18, 2012

5297.txt

cc: Mike Wallace <wallaceatXYZxyzos.washington.edu>
date: Thu May 22 14:02:01 2008
from: Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: Re: Press release plus Nature
to: John Kennedy <john.kennedyatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk>, David Thompson <davetatXYZxyzos.colostate.edu>

John,
I should also pass this onto the UEA press office- someone may get in touch with
yours.
The UEA one deals with regional papers in this part of the world and MOHC send
around the nationals. I'm presuming this will be the same as the annual press releases
in December. I'll send it off to UEA later today or tomorrow, if we come up
with a few quotes. I've made some suggestions here.

Also today is the day that Quirin said Nature would begin to
send things out - their own press release, his brief summary, the News and
Views item and the paper itself.
Cheers
Phil
At 13:23 22/05/2008, John Kennedy wrote:

Dear all,
I gave the press release to our press office, together with them we've
produced the attached version. They were very keen to have a quote from
someone involved in the press release [a scientist].
John
On Mon, 2008-05-19 at 15:45 +0100, David Thompson wrote:
> Phil et al...
>
>
> I have arranged to chat with Nature tomorrow as well.
>
>
> I agree with Phil's comments on the press release. Also: didn't Dick
> Reynolds also identify the role of the buoys? (the press release makes
> it sound only the Hadley Centre has identified this bias)
>
>
> I suggest we get the release finalized by Thursday. At that time I
> will send what we have to the CSU press office (and I'm guessing Mike
> will do the same with the UW press office).
>
>
> I've agreed to chat with any Nature reporters on the story. But
> otherwise I'm going to be pretty cautious about what reporters I chat
> with... I'll let all of you know if there are any other reasonable
> interview requests from folks we trust (eg Andy Revkin, etc).
>
>
> -Dave
>
>
> On May 19, 2008, at 1:55 PM, Phil Jones wrote:
>
> >
> >
> > John,
> > The first 4 paragraphs are fine. The last paragraph seems to
> > have crept
> > back from an earlier version! I guess my problem with it is the
> > first sentence.
> >
> >
> > The last sentence of para 5 has already been said at the end of
> > para 4.
> >
> >
> > The second and third sentences of para 5 are OK if they have a
> > slightly different
> > first sentence. Maybe just say 'We are working to improve the SST
> > data entering
> > the global temperature dataset.' and then 'We have identified two
> > principal biases
> > in the SST record...'
> >
> >
> > Whilst writing this email I've been called by Nature about the
> > news item they
> > are going to run on this. This has to be ready this Thursday
> > (22cnd). The person
> > doing this is in Germany and he seems to think it is my paper!
> > I've put him
> > right on this and he will be contacting you - I'll send him
> > details.
> >
> >
> > He's going to send me our final pdf. He has a draft of the news
> > and views item,
> > but this is very much a draft.
> >
> >
> > This Thursday - his draft news item, our pdf and the N&V item
> > all go out
> > emabrgoed to the press.
> >
> >
> > Cheers
> > Phil
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > At 13:42 16/05/2008, John Kennedy wrote:
> > > All,
> > >
> > >
> > > I've attached the latest version of the press release. I've
> > > stripped off
> > > the additional information and removed some of the text about
> > > keying in
> > > new data.
> > >
> > >
> > > The press office and other interested parties haven't seen it yet,
> > > which
> > > is the next stage.
> > >
> > >
> > > John
> > >
> > >
> > > On Wed, 2008-04-30 at 10:50 +0100, David Thompson wrote:
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > All,
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > I've made a few tweaks to Mike's version. Text is below.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > I was also uncomfortable with the Hadley Centre propaganda. I
> > > think it
> > > > would have been a lightning rod for the critics.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > -Dave
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Using a novel technique to remove the effects of temporary
> > > > fluctuations in global temperature due to El Ni�±o and transient
> > > > weather patterns, researchers at Colorado State University, the
> > > > University of Washington, the UK Met Office and the University
> > > of East
> > > > Anglia have highlighted a number of sudden drops in global
> > > > temperature.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Most of these drops coincide with the eruptions of large
> > > tropical
> > > > volcanoes and are evident in temperatures measured over both the
> > > > worldâs land and ocean areas. But the largesgest drop, occurring
> > > towards
> > > > the end of 1945, is unrelated to any known volcanic eruption and
> > > is
> > > > not apparent over land. It appears to arise from an artificial
> > > and
> > > > temporary cooling caused by an abrupt change in the mix of US
> > > and UK
> > > > ships reporting temperatures at the end of the Second World War.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > The majority of sea temperature measurements available in
> > > > international data bases between 1941 and 1945 are from US
> > > ships. The
> > > > crews of US ships measured the temperature of the water before
> > > it was
> > > > used to cool the ships engine. Because of warmth coming from the
> > > ship,
> > > > the water was often a little warmer than the true sea
> > > temperature. At
> > > > the end of 1945 the number of US observations in the data base
> > > dropped
> > > > rapidly while the number of UK observations increased. UK ships
> > > > measured the temperature of water samples collected using
> > > special
> > > > buckets. Wind blowing past the buckets as they were hauled onto
> > > the
> > > > deck often caused these measurements to be cooler than the
> > > actual sea
> > > > temperature. The sudden drop in global-mean temperatures at the
> > > end of
> > > > World War 2 is due to the sudden but uncorrected change from US
> > > engine
> > > > room measurements - which are biased warm - to UK measurements -
> > > which
> > > > are biased cool.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Although the drop in 1945 is large in climate-change terms �
> > > abouut
> > > > 0.3�°C � its effect is likely to be largest during the period
> > > > immediately after the Second World War and very small by the
> > > 1960s,
> > > > when better-insulated buckets came into use and a there was a
> > > more
> > > > varied mix of measurements from different national merchant
> > > shipping
> > > > fleets. Correcting the drop will change the character of middle
> > > > century temperature variablity during the period following World
> > > War
> > > > 2, but it is expected to have little effect on 20th century
> > > warming
> > > > trends, which are corroborated by independent records of air
> > > > temperatures taken over both land and sea.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Climate researchers at the Met Office Hadley Centre are working
> > > to
> > > > reduce the biases in the temperature datasets. In the past two
> > > years,
> > > > many hundreds of thousands of observations have been keyed in
> > > from
> > > > hand-written log books that were kept aboard ships in the UK
> > > navy,
> > > > particularly for the periods of sparse marine coverage, such as
> > > the
> > > > two World War periods. Fixing the drop is unlikely to radically
> > > alter
> > > > our understanding of climate change, but having a more accurate
> > > record
> > > > of the real temperature change during the mid-20th century could
> > > > provide insight into the more subtle mechanisms that caused the
> > > early
> > > > rise in temperatures to the 1920s and the subsequent flattening
> > > of the
> > > > temperature curve that lasted into the early 1970s.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Extra information:
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Marine temperatures are much more prone to systematic biases
> > > arising
> > > > from changes in the way the measurements are taken and the
> > > platforms
> > > > used than are land air temperatures. For example, since the
> > > 1970s,
> > > > sea surface temperatures have been estimated from satellites,
> > > but
> > > > these need considerable adjustment (sometimes in excess of 2 deg
> > > C) to
> > > > be comparable with ship and buoy measurements. The satellite
> > > sees only
> > > > the top millimetre of the ocean surface, while traditional ship-
> > > based
> > > > sampling sees the top few metres. A change is gradually talking
> > > place
> > > > across the worldâs oceans in the way sea sursurface temperature
> > > > measurements are made during the last ten years: the number of
> > > ship-
> > > > based measurements has reduced slightly, but there is a dramatic
> > > > increase in the number of measurements coming from automatic
> > > > measurements taken on fixed and drifting buoys. Work is underway
> > > to
> > > > determine the size of the difference between the ships and
> > > buoys, as
> > > > the bias between the two could be of the same order as that in
> > > the
> > > > 1940s.
> > > --
> > > John Kennedy Climate Monitoring and Research Scientist
> > > Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy Road Exeter EX1 3PB
> > > Tel: +44 (0)1392 885105 Fax: +44 (0)1392 885681
> > > E-mail: john.kennedyatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk
> > > [1]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk
> > > Global climate data sets are available from [2]http://www.hadobs.org
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> > Prof. Phil Jones
> > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
> > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
> > University of East Anglia
> > Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
> > NR4 7TJ
> > UK
> >
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------
> --------------------------------------------------------------------
> David W. J. Thompson
> [3]www.atmos.colostate.edu/~davet
>
>
> Dept of Atmospheric Science
> Colorado State University
> Fort Collins, CO 80523
> USA
>
>
> Phone: 970-491-3338
> Fax: 970-491-8449
>
>
>
>
--
John Kennedy Climate Monitoring and Research Scientist
Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy Road Exeter EX1 3PB
Tel: +44 (0)1392 885105 Fax: +44 (0)1392 885681
E-mail: john.kennedyatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk [4]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk
Global climate data sets are available from [5]http://www.hadobs.org

Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
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