cc: Eystein Jansen <eystein.jansenatXYZxyz.uib.no>, StefanRahmstorf Keith Briffa <k.briffaatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, Anders Levermann <Anders.LevermannatXYZxyz-potsdam.de>
date: Tue, 3 Jan 2006 12:08:15 -0700
from: Jonathan Overpeck <jtoatXYZxyzrizona.edu>
subject: Re: new climate model runs
to: Fortunat Joos <joosatXYZxyzmate.unibe.ch>
Hi Fortunat et al - glad you have the forcing and can get it out to
Anders/Stefan et al. Please do so with recommendations (perhaps
building on mine, but suggest what you think is best) for
experimental setup - what complete set of forcings should be used,
Please note that we'd like (can we get from both of your groups??)
simulated climate to present in two forms: 1) with natural (Lean
solar plus volc) plus anthropogenic forcing and 2) with natural only
also. It would be good if the results from your runs (Swiss and
German) were directly comparable with each other.
Also, please note that I'm waiting for everyone to return to the TSU
and let us know the official schedule for the next couple months.
There is a finite chance that we'll need your runs, and the figures
(which Keith and Tim Osborn will be drafting) well BEFORE the end of
January. The reason for this is that this material will be used in
the next draft of the TS/SPM (and will need iteration), and we are
also likely to be under pressure to have all our figures out for
broader WG1 review in January. So, we hope you can speed things up to
be run sooner in Jan. OK?
I tried to attach the Christchurch Chap 6 plenary talk, but my phone
line is not allowing it today. Will send soon. The figure that is
being considered (wanted, might be the better word) for the TS is the
one on the upper right of page 7 of the pdf I will send.
Please keep me, Eystein, and Keith in the loop as things develop. It
would be great to know what your planned completion date is once you
have things running (hopefully soon, pretty please... - we can't
afford to be late with things anymore)
Many thanks! Peck
>ALL the best for 2006!
>I got the forcing from Judith and will send it tomorrow as I am on a slow
>connection right now.
>We plan to have the calculation by end of Januar as we are pretty busy with
>Quoting Stefan Rahmstorf <email@example.com>:
>> as I said earlier: we're ready to roll as soon as we get that forcing.
>> Who can provide it?
>> Jonathan Overpeck wrote:
>> > Happy New Year Stefan and Fortunat - just wanted to check in to see
>> > where things stand with the EMIC runs you were going to do for the
>> > revised Fig 6.10 - that is, with the new Lean solar forcing, and
>> > (where the published runs don't already exist) with the old Lean
>> > forcing. Again, the purpose of all this is to assess what difference
>> > the new solar forcing makes.
>> > Eystein and I are hoping that you've figured out the best experimental
>> > framework - e.g., what other forcing series to use. It would be great
>> > if you used the same volcanic and trace gas series, if that is
>> > possible. I'm cc'ing this to Keith in the hope that he can help us
>> > make sure we're making the right decisions.
>> > Also, since Keith is going to be making the new figure comparing the
>> > range of obs climate over the last 1000 years to the range of
>> > simulated climate over the last 1000 years (i.e., like the fig we
>> > showed in our second/Thursday plenary talk), it would be worth
>> > thinking if there is any way to scale the solar forcing over the
>> > entire last 1000 years to Judith's new reduced-amplitude solar
>> > forcing. I'm not sure this is straightforward or not, but if it was
>> > possible, we'd have your new runs for inclusion in the new obs vs.
>> > simulated climate fig too - this would be helpful.
>> > In any case, the purpose of this email is just to see where we stand,
>> > and help keep things moving.
>> > Thanks, Peck
>Until November 23
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